On Regular Investing 定投改變命運 by Xiaolai Li , rewritten in English by John Gordon & Xiaolai Li Day 31-35

下午9:53

Day 31

Some fans of regular investing always emphasize(强调) partially(部分) correct fact.

Which is that regular investing will effectively reduce your average cost.

But the other side of coin is that it also probably raises(增加) your average cost.

It's obvious, isn't it? 

So these fans are using incorrect reason to choose the correct strategy . But how long can operating system(操作系统)with an error at the base level continue to run for?

很多定投策略的拥趸,总是在宣扬一个仅为部分正确的事实,他们说采用定投策略可以“有效地降低均价“---可硬币的另外一面是,定投策略本身也可能“有效地抬高均价”,很明显,不是吗?

也就是说,这些拥趸其实是使用了错误的依据,幸运地选择了正确的策略,可是,一个底层就出错了的操作系统,能够持续运行多久呢?

Day 32

The reason why regular investing is effective is that matches up with the following reality of markets: Bear markets are much longer then bull markets.

定投策略之所以有效,核心机理在于这个策略符合现实世界的真实情况:

熊市就是比牛市长,并且长很多很多.....

Day 33

For example , over the last one thousands days, the blockchain markets have had less then 150 days of a true bull market. The same phenomenon is true no matter which price chart you are looking at, whether it be the S&P500, Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook,Tencent or Alibaba.

Bear markets are always very long. Bull markets are so short that we call them bubbles , like the dotcom bubble at the end of the last century.

例如,在过去的1000天之中,区块链数字资产交易市场里,所谓的牛市连150天都不到....同样的模式随处可见,无论你观察哪一个价格曲线变化都会发现同样的模式,无论是标准普尔指数基金(S&P500)价格,还是可口可乐,苹果,谷歌,亚马逊,网飞,脸书,腾讯,阿里巴巴,抑或是贵州茅台... 熊市总是很长很长,牛市很短很短;牛市短到什么地步呢?人们甚至把那个时段的价格叫泡沫---比如,上个世纪九十年代末的互联网泡沫。


Day34

Once you understand this key point ,you will understand the following ; with regular investing your profits essentially(本质上) all come from the bear market.

理解了这个关键之后,你就明白了:

通过践行定投策略,你的未来利润本质上全部来自于你所经历的熊市!

Day35

Most investors don't understand this, and it is the core reason why their investments are destined to fail.

They want to make money quickly in the ephemeral bull market. It's quite depressing : most "investors" who enter the market during a bull market are destined to lose their shirts , because before they realize it, the short bull market has ended, and the long bear market  has begun. Regular investors on the other hand are slowly accumulating  throughout the bear market.

绝大多数投资市场中的投资者并不了解这个本质,这也是他们之中的绝大多数投资失败的最本质原因 ----他们希望在转瞬即逝的牛市里快速地赚到钱。一个令人沮丧的现象是,大多数在牛市里被吸引进市场的“投资者”,注定会折戟而归,因为还没等他们反应过来,短暂的牛市已经结束了,漫长的熊市已经开始了... 与他们截然相反的是,定投策略采用者恰恰是在熊市里慢慢积聚能量的。



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