On Regular Investing 定投改變命運 by Xiaolai Li , rewritten in English by John Gordon & Xiaolai Li Day 26-30

下午10:04

 Day26

The key point is that you entered the market at the worst time -- on October 8th,2007, the S&P500 was at $1561, and it didn't return to the price until March 25th,2013.

重点在于,你是在最差的时机进入市场的,2007年10月8日。那时的标准普尔指数价格是1561美元,而这个价格要到2013年3月25日才终于收复。

Day27

But if you take another look at the chart above, you'll see that the red line crosses the blue line for the first time in 2009. So while it took the S&P500 286 weeks to return to its high, your strategy of regular investing began to see steadily(稳定持续) positive  returns after just 111 weeks.

When you started to see positive returns, the S&P500 was still 30% off its all-time(历年) high.

When the S&P500 finally returned to its high after 286 weeks, your strategy was already showing returns of 32.64%.

然而,你再看看图二,那根红线是在2009年年底的时候第一次穿过蓝线的!也就是说,虽然标准普尔指数价格从你开始投资的时候算起,总计耗费了286周才重新超过1561美元,可是采取定投策略的你竟然在111周后就开始稳定持续盈利了!当你低头族开始盈利的时候,标准普尔指数还需要30%的空间才能收复新高,而最终,286周之后,等到标准普尔指数终于收复旧高的时候,你的盈利竟然早已经是32.64%!



Day 28

Let's take a look at an even more striking example. Suppose you started regularly investing in BItcion in December of 2017. When Bitcoin was at it's all-time high of $19,800.

Shortly afterwards, the price crashed and it's still hasn't return to it's all-time high.

The chart below assumes you started regularly investing in Bitcoin on December 11th 2017, and kept it up for 87 weeks.

让我们再看另外一个更为震撼的例子。假设你从 2017 年 12 月开始定投冰糖橙,那时的冰糖橙创造了当 前的历史最高价格,19,800 美元左右,而后价格一路 “狂跌”,至今尚未收复历史最高价格。以下图表是假设你从 2017 年 12 月 11 日连续定投冰糖橙 87 周之后的情况。

让我们再看另外一个更为震撼的例子。假设你从2017年12月开始定投冰糖橙,那时的冰糖橙创造了当前的历史最高价格,19,800美元左右,而后价格一路“狂跌”至今尚未收复历史最高价格。以下图表是假设你从2017年12月11日连续定投冰糖橙87周之后的情况。


 Day 29

Even though your entered the market at the worst time , your investment has still been profitable in USD terms , with the red line ( your assets in USD terms ) passing the blue line (your total investment in USD terms) on May 6th , 2019

If you invested $100 each week , by 87th week you would have invested $8,700 , but your Bitcoin would have been worth $16,417 , for a gain of 88.71%

This is despite the fact that Bitcoin remained 62.85% off it's all-time high, which was when you started investing.

虽然你的入场时机是最差的 --- 2017 年12月11日,你开始定投的时候,价格就处于当前历史最高点,比特币价格迄今为止(2019年10月)也尚未收复这个历史最高点。可是你的投资竟然还是提前盈利的,因为从2019年5月6日开始,红线(你手中比特币的净值)穿越了橙线(你的累积投资金额)....假设你每周定投100美元,到了第87周你已经累积投资了$8,700美元,可是你手中的比特币价格净值竟然是$16,417美元,累积盈利88,71%---虽然这个时候比特币的价格依然远未 恢复,只不过是11,982美元,仅为历史最高价格的62。85%

Day 30 

This can seem really flabbergasting ( 难以置信 惊讶 )at first:

With regular investing  even if you start at what seems like the worst time, such as just before market crash  your overall investment will become profitable before the market recover.

这就实在令人目瞪口呆了:

定投策略采用者即便是在最差的时机入场,总也是可以提前盈利。



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